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文章作者:产品测评 上传时间:2019-11-17

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03945-y

In the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the sea surface and sub-surface have cooled in recent weeks, though temperatures remain at strong El Niño levels. In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index has eased to weak El Niño values. Recent bursts of westerly winds over the equatorial western Pacific may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño.

Guo Y.-P., and Tan Z.-M., 2018: Westward migration of tropical cyclone rapid-intensification over the northwestern Pacific during short duration El Niño. Nature Communications, 9, 1570. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-03945-y.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, while 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events brings above average rainfall to parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

本研究的完成得到了国家重点研发计划、国家自然科学基金等多个项目的共同资助。我校大气科学学院谈哲敏教授课题组长期致力于台风动力学,台风内核与外部环境相互作用,台风模拟与预测等方面的研究,在相关领域已取得了一系列重要的学术成果。本研究以课题组成员郭毅鹏博士为第一作者,谈哲敏教授为通讯作者。

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

成果链接:

最近几周,虽然热带太平洋中部海水温度仍保持着强厄尔尼诺的水准,但同早先相比,目前的海水温度已经开始冷却。随着南方涛动指数水平下降,厄尔尼诺力度逐渐减弱,不过最近在西太平洋赤道上爆发的强风减缓了厄尔尼诺退却的速度。

(大气科学学院、科学与技术处)

另外一个对气象有重要影响力的指标——IOD指标表现则相对安静,预计从12月份至2016年4月份,其水平和发展趋势不会对澳大利亚的气候带来过多影响。不过,中印度洋海盆的海水表面温度依然比正常水平温暖,这样的状况可能会给澳大利亚带来更多的潮湿和降雨。

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